Zero Hour.

The worst is only a little bit away.

Making final preparations here.

See you on the other side!

Zero Day has begun.

I guess there is a God of some sort, because Gustav weakened back to a 3 overnight. I dunno.

I'm now in a mandatory evacuation area as of about four hours ago. However, I'm on the barest edge of it, so I'm still staying put and hoping this place makes it again. This place will more than easily withstand tropical storm or Cat 1 winds, which seem now to be the consensus for this area. I should be far enough inland and high enough to withstand whatever surge there is.

I will be here until the end.

Every parish south of the lake is under mandatory evac now.

At this point, Gustav is drawing in some dry air and encountering some shear. This has caused it to drop from a Category 4 to a Cat 3 overnight. My hope is that these conditions will prevail upon the storm, but the fact is that it could strengthen again. It's also picked up forward momentum, meaning that while it may be more difficult to turn, it'll also rush through faster. At the speeds it had yesterday though... adding a couple miles per hour doesn't make much difference.

One day til landfall...

Back from the road meet...

A lot of stuff was seen, including this on the way back:


Seems a highway once gone and thought decommissioned still exists!

Also, we're under a hurricane watch now. Expect that to escalate to a warning before long.

Gustav's exploded to Category 4 strength during the day. It's possible that it could go even further upwards to a Cat 5 once it passes Cuba, but landfall as a Category 4 in Terrebonne Parish somewhere. The Westbank is facing severe devastation, and the Eastbank may see it as bad as Katrina.

While out on the meet, we saw that I-10 East and US 90 East were packed full of traffic getting the hell out. I-59 was seeing heavier-than-usual traffic this afternoon, but expect that to explode. If anyone reading this is in Southern Louisiana and planning to evacuate, now is the time.

If you're getting out and coming through St. Tammany, going north, LA 21 is WIDE OPEN. It has a four-lane section from Bush to Bogalusa and can be used as a VERY effective evacuation route. This section can also be accessed from LA 41 for those going through the eastern part of the parish.

I will be shutting down my desktop machines tomorrow night once I have all the pics uploaded from today that are worth using. I'll still be blogging from one of my laptops unless something changes.

Nothing new.

Looks like they're pretty settled on it making landfall somewhere southeast of Lafayette as a Cat 3. I think the Westbank's going to catch the worst of it, especially up the river.

No evacuations of any sort for St. Tammany, Tangipahoa or Washington parishes yet.

From The Horse's Ass:

!!! According to FEMA, contraflow is expected to begin in Louisiana at 8AM Sunday (August 31). !!!

(The above info is, of course, assuming the current track remains accurate.)

As well, as far as I'm aware:

President Bush has declared a state of emergency for Louisiana.

The parishes of St. Bernard, St. Charles and Plaquemines will call for mandatory evacuations on Saturday. I'd guess other Tier 1 evacuation (coastal) parishes will be ready to do the same.

A voluntary evacuation of Grand Isle has begun today.

As of the time of this post, schools will be closed Tuesday (at the least) in Jefferson, Orleans (RSD and OPSB), St. John the Baptist, St. Charles and St. Tammany Parishes.

LSU has rescheduled their football game against Appalachian State for 10AM tomorrow, so that hopefully the people getting out after the game will not interfere with evacuations. The game must go on in Death Valley, I guess.

At the moment, no shelters have been opened in St. Tammany Parish, and no evacuations, either voluntary or mandatory, have been called yet. Good news for my neck of the woods.

Gustav itself has left Jamaica and is reforming quickly. An eyewall appears to be beginning to form, according to some satellite images. It's expected to acheive Category 3 status before it makes landfall. The track is continuing to indicate the most likely landfall area will be on the coast somewhere south to south-southeast of Lafayette. Two things about the storm worry me now. One is that its surface area is growing larger. The hope is that hurricane-force winds will remain tightly packed around the center. The other thing is that it appears to be picking up forward speed.

We will never forget.

Today marks three years since Katrina hit...

Ok, with that memorial bit out of the way now... Gustav's track has shifted to the west some more. It appears now that (if THIS track holds) Lafayette and Lake Charles are locked dead center in its sights. As it is, it's still mired in Jamaica, so it hasn't strengthened back to a hurricane just yet. One problem is that the track's got it back to a morning landfall and projects it to slow its forward momentum immediately afterward. This may not be the exact track it ends up with, but it's a disturbing development all the same.

Plaquemines, St. Charles and St. Bernard Parishes are going to start special needs evacuation today.

A state of emergency has been declared in St. Tammany Parish. Parish President Kevin Davis is now saying based on current models, no evacuation would be called until Sunday.

More as I have it...

As Per The Usual

Obliteration Delayed?

Landfall forecasts have been pushed back again. Still expected to turn wherever it hits into a parking lot Tuesday, but now "predicted" to be sometime during the PM hours. As it did over Haiti, Gustav's forward momentum's remained slow passing over Jamaica as well. In fact, since it made landfall in Haiti, its forward momentum hasn't exceeded 7mph. As long as its forward momentum remains slow, the chances increase for a major change of track, or at least allow for more evacuation time. The track does appear to be sneaking to the east.

Remember what I said about unpredictability?

One thing that could swing things further in our favor are a pair of high pressure systems in the U.S.. One in the east may have been keeping it down towards the Caribbean, and another could steer it west as the first falls apart. The trick will be, how long will it take for that second high to get here? If it gets here quickly enough and Gustav keeps spinning its wheels, the high could steer it off into Texas or southwestern Louisiana.

Effect on Evacuation Protocol

According to WAFB-TV in Baton Rouge, the Governor will not start Contraflow before Sunday.

Local parishes in the area may be holding back "official" evacuations for a while due to this. That hasn't stopped them from declaring emergencies, though. Say what you will about the ineptness of state, regional and local government, it seems they actually learned something from Katrina. Some people are already ready to GTFO at a moment's notice, and others are still preparing, so traffic may run higher than usual.

I'm still "go" here to ride this out, by the way.

Morning update from Taralyn's Obsessive Eye (TM)

Since waking up a few hours ago, I've done nothing but keep an eye on Gustav, on the steering currents, water temperatures, etc. I've been watching everything from the Weather Channel to Cuban radar stations. (The latter is showing a clear center of circulation closing in on Jamaica from the east at the time of this post.) These are the joys of having no job, no life, an innate sense for the weather and more computer equipment than some rural TV stations.

So, from what I've been observing and calculating, the only constant in this Gustav drama seems to be delay. When it first made hurricane strength, it was forecast to smack Louisiana around by Sunday. At this point, it's not even forecast to enter the Gulf til Sunday, and our date with annihilation's been shoved back to Tuesday.

The models have caused a shift in track back to the west. Now it's forecast to nail the Morgan City/Thibodaux/Houma area again. Of course, you can't predict that far ahead, it's all guesswork. Look at the track Fay ended up taking. No computer model could have predicted that. It could yet fool us all and give Texas or Florida another beating, or it could be the Nightmare Scenario and come right up the river. Or running over Jamaica could very well destroy it like running over Haiti nearly did. Point is, we still got to prepare for the worst until it is gone, dissipated, dead. Can't let your guard down just yet, people.

The one thing I'm noticing about the storm at this point is that the range of tropical storm force wind is still small in diameter. If anything, this is going to resemble Camille more than it'll resemble Katrina. Of course, I Am Not A Meteorologist here, but it's still a strong gut feeling. Surge will still be a concern when it hits, yes, but it won't be like Katrina.

Of course, as always, take this with a grain of salt, and for $deity's sake, be ready for anything.

Another storm approaches.

Yet another storm has its sights set on Louisiana. Me, being the ever-obsessive type that I am, I've had radar and satellite loops running all day. My room's looking a lot like the backdrop of most news broadcasts during the weather segment. I've even got my Marks-A-Lot. I got my preparations done today, and I'm going to be riding it out, possibly blogging away until the power finally dies.

I have no doubts. This storm very well could finish the region, considering its weakened state since Katrina, both from a physical and a governmental point of view. (Personally, I'd love to see Mandeville City Hall get wiped off the map so the corruption there can be cleansed, but that's beside the point.) The point is, while this storm could prove to be a near-fatal blow to the region if it comes in as predicted, I won't be leaving. If anything, I'm coming out of this one standing.

I knew when I saw Gustav form that I wouldn't be going anywhere. My house survived Katrina, and the best place to be for this storm is right here. If anything, after reading this post earlier today, my resolve has only been cemented more. He's right of course... we're the best at dealing with disasters like this. We can handle anything anyone, even nature, can toss at us. We're disaster-tested and our resolve is as tough as nails. We're resourceful, even in the darkest hours.

Those parts of the area that are coming back so far are indeed coming back stronger than before, despite all the red tape and F*** runarounds. The recovery will not be stopped by this new threat. It may be delayed, but nothing will stop it. Strike us down, and we will rise up once more, much stronger than ever before. Life will still go on.

Before I end this post, just know one more thing. We are many things. We may be many other things in the eyes of the rest of the country, but never doubt one thing above all else about myself and anyone else in this region.

We are survivors.

Off-topic: 9 year old pitcher banned for being "too good"

ESPN - 9-year-old boy told he's too good to pitch

Outside the blog's scope, I know, but I'm bored and this story kind of burns me. (Should some parent want their kid to look at this entry, I'm going to keep the language kid-safe.)

When we were younger, we didn't get coddled in sports, right? Used to be, something like this was unheard of. If you couldn't hit the pitch, you just had to get better until you could. Either way, the kid would grow up to be a major-league fireballer.

Instead, the kid's "too good." No one can hit off of him. Instead of facing him, an opposing team recently walked away and forfeited rather than face the kid's 40mph heat. His league's banned him from pitching and is even threatening to disband his team. Twenty years ago... maybe even ten years ago, this would be unheard of, and any parents pushing for this would rightfully be called whiners. Indeed, the parents would be told to tell their kids "if you can't hit it, you need to improve."

One other reason cited is due to the velocity, according to the league's attorney. (Can we burn all the lawyers in the pit yet? No? Darn.) Problem is, the kid's pitches have all went true... he's never hit a batter. It'd be one thing if he threw more wild pitches than Mark Wohlers, but instead, this kid's got the control of a Tom Glavine of a few years ago (say, pre-Mets). He's no danger to the other kids in the league.

I suspect an ulterior motive in this - the kid turned down an invite to the defending league champions, sponsored by an employer of one of the league administrators. (Cornering the market much? Little League Evil Empire - ah, Yankees?) Instead, he joined a different team unconnected to the administration. The kid's coaches and parents suspect the same reason could be leading to this. Play for us or we'll make your team suffer for it. Sounds plausible.

Either way, after the opposing team wussed out instead of playing the game, the young pitcher's mother unloaded, threatening them and vowing to get the league shut down. She did deny the threats, but called the police.

Good for her. At least one league parent has a spine.

Options are being floated out there for the kid, and none of them are good. One is for him simply not to pitch, which in my opinion is wasting a skill. The kid's obviously a pitching savant. Another may be for him to pitch against older kids. This, too, is a bad option, one that could stunt his natural progression of talent as he gets older. One more is switching positions, which he already does on off days. Again, it would be squandering savant-level talent.

New Haven could be proud of this kid one day. He could pitch a complete game to end a World Series once he grows up, once he realizes his potential, and when he does, residents could be proud of the local boy for doing good. Instead, the parents who are pushing this kid out are being selfish. Their own kids feel bad because they can't hit off him. "Mommy, Daddy, he's making me look bad. Do something." Boo hoo. Cry me a river, please.

Kids are supposed to face some adversity as they grow up. You can't shield them forever, and if you manage it, the kids grow up as useless leeches on society at large. They grow up fragile, easily broken and very difficult to repair. Worse, they grow up thinking they've been wronged any time the wind shifts. Let them face some adversity, and let them toughen up. It'll prepare them for life after childhood, and the right kind of toughening can serve any kid well. It's the real world... you will always lose at least once. It can't be avoided. Losing isn't the end of the world. It doesn't even matter in the long run. What counts is how you rebound and what you learn from it.

In short... these whiny parents and scorned admins need to leave this kid alone, and let their own kids toughen up in the face of the heat.