Obliteration Delayed?
Landfall forecasts have been pushed back again. Still expected to turn wherever it hits into a parking lot Tuesday, but now "predicted" to be sometime during the PM hours. As it did over Haiti, Gustav's forward momentum's remained slow passing over Jamaica as well. In fact, since it made landfall in Haiti, its forward momentum hasn't exceeded 7mph. As long as its forward momentum remains slow, the chances increase for a major change of track, or at least allow for more evacuation time. The track does appear to be sneaking to the east.
Remember what I said about unpredictability?
One thing that could swing things further in our favor are a pair of high pressure systems in the U.S.. One in the east may have been keeping it down towards the Caribbean, and another could steer it west as the first falls apart. The trick will be, how long will it take for that second high to get here? If it gets here quickly enough and Gustav keeps spinning its wheels, the high could steer it off into Texas or southwestern Louisiana.
Effect on Evacuation Protocol
According to WAFB-TV in Baton Rouge, the Governor will not start Contraflow before Sunday.
Local parishes in the area may be holding back "official" evacuations for a while due to this. That hasn't stopped them from declaring emergencies, though. Say what you will about the ineptness of state, regional and local government, it seems they actually learned something from Katrina. Some people are already ready to GTFO at a moment's notice, and others are still preparing, so traffic may run higher than usual.
I'm still "go" here to ride this out, by the way.
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